Forex: EUR/USD will remain offered below 1.4925/50, targeting 1.4588/36 - Commerzbank

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Wed, Oct 28 2009, 08:10 GMT
http://www.fxstreet.com

FXstret.com (Barcelona) - Euro retreat from 1.5060 high has extended on Tuesday to 1.4770 low and the Euro has bounced higher, reaching levels above 1.4800, although, according to Karen Jones, the pair remains on the downside, targeting 1.4588/36 area.

For today Jones foresees Euro recoveries to cap ar 1.4925/50: "EUR/USD will remain offered intraday below 1.4925/50 - target 1.4588/36 (55 day ma and uptrend) we look for this to hold and provoke recovery."

Forex: USD/JPY ends above 92.00 for the first time in 6 weeks

Saturday, October 24, 2009

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) – The Dollar rose against the Yen for the third consecutive day accumulating an increase of more than 150 pips. USD/JPY peaked at 92.11 posting the highest price in a month. Greenback continues to recover after plunging to 88.00 (8-month low) early in October.

The Yen fell sharply against the Euro and continues to move toward the lowest level of the 2009. EUR/JPY jumped to 138.35, fresh 2-month high and only a few pips below 139.20, year high. The pair rose on eleven out of the last twelve days.

Trading Strategy: Gold vs Gold Stocks

Friday, October 23, 2009

Last month I shared a strategy that used the ratio between oil stocks and the price of oil itself to trade the oil sector (read part I and part II).

Keeping with that theme, in this post I’ll look at using the ratio between gold stocks and gold to trade very short-term moves in gold. I’ve been wrestling with this observation for a while, and I’m sharing the basic concept here because I think the strategy is not ready for primetime (more on this later).

First, a look at the ratio of gold (represented by the ETF GLD) over the gold sector (XAU) from 2005:


Over the last 4+ years, the two have traded in a fairly narrow range versus the other, but in mid-2008 the ratio exploded as investors embraced the “safe” (good for gold) and abandoned all things equity-related (bad for gold stocks).

Note: I’m using the ETF GLD to represent physical gold, and the index ^XAU to represent the sector, because I think those two are the most familiar to readers, but the observations in this post have more or less held for other vehicles such as futures (gold) and the ETF GDX (gold sector).


The Strategy


The ratio of gold vs the gold sector has exhibited a fairly strong contrarian tendency. The following graph shows the results of two strategies, the first (green) going long gold at today’s close if GLD underperformed XAU for the day, and the second (red) going long if GLD outperformed XAU, frictionless from 2005 to present.


[logarithmically-scaled]

The observation hasn’t been foolproof (note late 2005, early 2006, late 2007, and early 2008), but generally speaking, gold has been consistently stronger tomorrow when yesterday it underperformed gold stocks (and vice-versa).

For the number-lovers:

This strategy is exploiting a very small daily advantage (similar for example to adaptive daily follow-through), and therein lays a problem.

Most of the strategies that I talk about on this blog could be traded using leveraged mutual funds (not to be confused with leveraged ETFs). These are the only thing that I trade. Because they incur no transaction fees or slippage, most of the tests I’ve performed on this blog could have been duplicated, for all intents and purposes, as well in the real world.

Not so here. To the best of my knowledge, there are no mutual funds suitable for active trading that track gold (the gold sector yes, but not gold itself). Trading this strategy with ETFs/futures would bring trading frictions that would close an already very fine advantage.

I’m struggling now with a way to improve upon this advantage enough to make it tradable. I share it here in hopes that I’ll generate a spark amongst fellow quant’ish folks who frequent the MarketSci Blog. As always, more to follow.

Forex Trading − The Forex Market Awaits Crucial U.S. Data Today

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

ForexYard

The forex market awaits crucial U.S. data today in the PPI and Building Permits figures at 12:30 GMT. These publications are set to drive the pace of the forex market throughout the trading day. It is also recommended that you pay close attention to unexpected news announcements by President Obama as this is likely to increase market volatility. As for now, open your positions in the majors, whilst the trading day gets under way.

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Economic News


USD - Dollar Tumbles on Ben Bernanke Speech

The U.S. Dollar tumbled in yesterday's trading following comments made by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke in a speech in which he hinted at keeping a loose U.S. monetary policy for at least the short-medium term future. The USD also fell as a flurry of higher corporate earnings and optimism about a continued global economic recovery led to an equity rally, which led to a slump in demand for the USD. Thus traders bought-up higher-yielding assets, such as the Australian Dollar, Crude Oil and Gold. The Dollar Index, which is used to track the USD against its 6 main trading partners, slipped 0.3% to 75.363

The Dollar extended the recent downward trend against the GBP, as the GBP/USD cross ascended by 65 pips to the 1.6403 level. This comes as the British Pound recovers from its downtrend against the USD from over a week ago. The EUR/USD cross also went significantly higher on Monday by 85 pips to the 1.4964 level. The greenback also made some significant declines vs. the Canadian Dollar and Swiss Franc. This behavior was apparent throughout Monday's trading due to the varied factors weighing down on the Dollar.

Today is the publication of the PPI and the Building Permits data at 12:30 GMT. Optimistic results will likely help push the Dollar lower. Looking at the bigger picture, the greenback may extend its losses as the global economic recovery will lead investors to go short on U.S. assets. This may come about due to the large budget deficit and an extended period of near zero Interest Rates employed by the Federal Reserve. A divestment away from the USD may be a natural process, as the global monetary system seeks to rebalance itself.

EUR - EUR Rallies against Dollar and Yen

The EUR rallied against the Dollar and Yen in Monday's trading. This comes about as the EUR/USD cross seeks to approach the 1.5000 level. Both the Euro-Zone and Britain recorded an impressive equity market rally, which was sparked by that of the U.S. However, the global equity market rally was initiated by better corporate earnings from the U.S. The EUR and GBP also benefited, as both the Euro-Zone and Britain were on the backburner of economic news yesterday. However, it should be noted that the EUR was the main benefactor on Monday.

The EUR/USD pair went 85 pips higher to the 1.4964 level. The GBP/USD cross climbed by 65 pips to 1.6403. Meanwhile, the EUR/GBP cross went marginally higher, and the EUR made some inroads into the JPY. On the other hand, the British currency fell vs. the CHF, despite rising over the previous several sessions. When we aren't speaking about the Dollar, it does get a bit harder to predict future trends for the EUR and GBP's main crosses. However, stronger economies will likely benefit these 2 currencies.

Looking ahead to today, there is set to be much vital data coming out of both Britain and the Euro-Zone. From Britain, there is the Public Sector Net Borrowing at 20:30 GMT, and the crucial speech by Bank of England (BoE) Governor Mervyn King. From the Euro-Zone, there is the expected German PPI at 06:00 GMT. The results of today's economic news are likely to set the expectations for both the GBP and EUR for mid-week trading. Additionally, these 2 respective currencies will be strong affected by developments from the U.S.

JPY - Yen Goes Mixed against the Majors

The Yen recorded some mixed results vs. its major currency pairs. The Japanese Yen rose by nearly 20 pips to the 90.69 level against the USD. Versus the GBP, the Yen lost 15 pips, as the pair failed to find a clear direction in Monday's trading. With regards to the EUR/JPY cross, the Yen lost nearly 60 pips, as the pair approaches the 135.80 level. The JPY seems to be losing out, due to being on the backburner of global economic news. Moreover, Japan's new government has been unclear on which direction it wants to take the Yen.

The Yen will be one of the key currencies to watch today. This is as mid-week trading approaches, and global investors seek to find more clues about the future direction of Japanese monetary policy. The Japanese Central Bank has yet to announce a full cut back in assisting industry. This decision is likely to be prolonged, as long as the economic situation continues to be unstable. This is likely to continue to destabilize the Japanese currency for the weeks to come.

OIL - Crude Oil Hits $80 a Barrel!

The price of Crude Oil hit $80.04 a barrel in Monday's trading, a 1-year high. This occurred as a rally in global equities drove investor confidence higher. This was due to expectations that a continued economic recovery will push fuel consumption higher. Crude has now gone higher for its 8th consecutive day, the longest time in 2 years. This comes as additional cash is added to the global economic system, and the USD has continued to decline. As a result, this has boosted demand for commodities such as Crude Oil.

As long as the USD is bearish and global equities are bullish, then Crude is likely to be a wise investment according to many economists. At the moment at least, this does seem to be correct, as Crude has been a profitable investment recently. If data from the U.S. today proves to be positive, then Crude's upward trend may continue for a 9th consecutive day. In the meantime, Oil traders should open their positions in the black gold as the trading day unfolds.

Technical News

EUR/USD

The Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart appear to be tightening, indicating a violent breach may occur in the future. The direction may be distinguished by the signals on the hourly chart which displays a bearish cross on the Slow Stochastic, indicating that a downward correction might take place. The hourly chart also shows the pair trading at the upper border of its Bollinger Bands, which indicates that the pair may fall to its lower border. Going short may be the right move

GBP/USD

There appears to be a bearish cross forming on the 4H chart's Slow Stochastic, signaling an impending downward correction. As other oscillators are showing the price floating in neutral territory, and the Bollinger Bands tightening on this chart, there is a possibility of a volatile bearish movement in the making. Going short with tight stops might be a good strategy today

USD/JPY

After yesterday's moderate downward movement, this pair now appears to be leveling off as all oscillators and indicators are displaying neutrality. It's possible a trend-reversal is in the making, but traders may want to wait for a clearer signal before going short on this pair today.

USD/CHF

This pair's recent drop has pushed the price into the over-sold territory on the RSI of both the hourly and 4-hour charts, signaling an upward correction could be in the making. With a bullish cross recently occurring on the 4-hour chart's Slow Stochastic, this move may indeed be imminent. Going long might be a good choice

The Wild Card

Gold

The price of this commodity appears to be floating in the over-bought territory on the RSI of the daily and 4 hour charts, indicating a bearish correction to the recent upward movement may occur later today. The imminent bearish cross on the hourly chart supports this notion. As the price of this commodity has discovered a new range to trade in, forex traders can benefit greatly from selling on highs and buying on lows within this price zone.


Asian forex market wrap: traders torn between conflicting signals

Thu, Oct 22 2009, 03:51 GMT
http://www.forexlive.com

Sharp fall late on Wall Street leads to equity market losses in Asia Chinese GDP comes in at +8.9% Chinese economic researchers see inflation looming as major problem Gold steady around $1060/oz A late fall on Wall Street brought about by the downgrading of Wells Fargo was expected to see JPY crosses pressured during the Asian session. Dealers were then surprised by buying flows in early Asia, particularly in AUD/JPY, which were rumoured to be Toshin-related. AUD/JPY continued to gain despite the Nikkei being down over 1% in early trade. The release of Chinese GDP data, despite everything coming in on expectation, saw some AUD selling enter the market. EUR/USD has been fairly quiet for most of the session, trading in a 10 pip range for most of the morning session. A quick jump up on the Toshin buying couldn't sustain and longs have since exited the market. No signs of any major players in the market at current levels. Cable has also had a quiet day. GBP/JPY reached one milestone in the 50% retracement of 163/139.70 and this has encouraged some mild profit taking. Heavy sell orders are tipped in the cable between 1.6640/60 from Sovereign names and Middle East players. Ranges: EUR/USD 1.4984/1.5036; cable 1.6582/1.6637; USD/JPY 90.78/91.16; AUD/USD .9235/99. Markets: Nikkei -1.1%, HK -1.0%, Shanghai -0.1%. Gold steady at $1060/oz, oil at $81/bbl.

Forex Robot Showdown - Doubling Stocks vs Forex AutoPilot System vs Forex Easy Cash

It seems the flood of forex robots being released currently is never ending. Specifically if you are new to currency trading, it can be very difficult to decide which forex robot is going to deliver results. For this article we are going to look into Doubling Stocks, Forex AutoPilot System and Forex Easy Cash which have proven to be 3 of the more popular products.

A forex robot is basically software or a web based platform which allows users to automate their currency trading. Essentially the technology bases trades on statistical information an real time algorithms to decide when is the most profitable time to enter and exit a trade.

The first thing to look at with any currency trading product is trust. There are a high amount of scams out there, and you need to be sure that you are purchasing a quality product. Doubling Stocks has been seen and reviewed on 'interactive investor', 'Business Week Online' and 'Entrepreneur.com'. Forex AutoPilot System has received a little more exposure and has been seen on 'NBC', 'CBS News', 'Business Week', 'Entrepreneur Startups' and 'Entrepreneur Young Millionaires'. Forex Easy Cash has received minimal exposure in comparison. I guess the creator did not have the marketing budget. Research is key and you want to make sure the proof and reputation is there before you purchase- although both products come with an unconditional 8 week money back guarantee.

In terms of functionality I have been testing all products out in tandem, and the results have been varied. The main distinction is that Doubling Stocks is essentially a subscription to a forex robot service. You basically receive predictions via email, which you then can trade manually. FAPS on the other hand is software which allows you to automate your trading in real time. Forex AutoPilot System hinges on the Fibonacci Formula which is the most efficient way to predict when to enter and exit a trade for maximum profit and minimum risk. Forex Easy Cash is also a client based piece of software which automatically creates its on signals in order to enter and exit trades for you. I personally found Forex Easy Cash to be less user friendly, and the results have left a little to be desired.

The bottom line is either Doubling Stocks or Forex AutoPilot System will provide an automated method of currency trading. Forex Easy cash on the other hand leaves a little to be desired. Personally I feel Doubling Stocks is better suited to userswith some level of experience in currency trading, whereas Forex AutoPilot System is ideal for users of all experience

Conclusion

If you are looking for a forex robot, you need to be wary of scam products. Always seek testimonials and some form of money back guarantee. Whether you choose Doubling Stocks, Forex AutoPilot System or Forex Easy Cash it is important to realise that you need some capital to achieve leverage, and get the most out of these programs. Ideally $500-$1000US is a good starting point. Finally it is important to understand that a forex robot is not foolproof, and it is always advisable to have some basic understanding of currency trading before you begin.

Forex Auto Trade - Make Profits Even While You Sleep

The Forex market is noteworthy for several reasons. For example, the market itself is quite volatile and dynamic, which means that you can expect a lot of fluctuations and changes at a given time. In addition, the forex market from the stock market because they never concluded otherwise and trade can place and at any time of day or night, all around the world.

While this kind of thing that separates the forex market from the stock market, it also presents unique opportunities not only did a number of challenges for many forex investors. Make After all, if you try a big splash on the Forex market, as you do so successfully if you can not possibly always monitor the market and your investments? Many investors have awaken to find that the value of their investments has changed dramatically in just one night, and the change is not always good!

How can you try a large to a profit on the Forex market make, even if they do not sleep or any number of other non-forex trading? Well, a Forex Trading Robot is a way to do this. Forex Trading Robots, also known as Forex trading software or auto-trading software to enable entrepreneurs to make money in the forex market without babysitting their investments 24 hours a day. This is particularly important because forex trading can be very challenging for serious investors who are often poor decisions and bad moves to the sleepless hours of research or a frustrating day of trading.

Forex Trading Robots do not make random choices based on a sort of basic decision-making. Stattdessen folgen sie kompliziert Trends auf Daten und Analysen, die außerordentlich schwierig sein würde, für ein Wesen von Mensch zu replizieren. Also, because Forex trading software can analyze trends and data very quickly, you can not miss are the potential gains that had made it a train at the right time can be.

There is really only one way to forex trading success while you sleep or are away from your computer or information. In this way, it is to use a forex trading program forex trading to automatically while you are away so that you do not stop making money just because you have other tasks or get some sleep!

Trade Forex Like a Pro - 3 Proven Techniques to Boost Your Profits

Tuesday, October 13, 2009

The business of trading forex may sound easy, but in reality, it is not. Although you can get the hang of it as you go along, it is only with long term trading and a wealth of experience that you can trade forex like a pro. There are, however, many deeper trading techniques that can help boost your profits, but most of these techniques are used only by the pros as they require a deeper level of understanding of the trading concepts.

However, you can trade forex like a pro by studying three proven techniques that can help enhance your trading performance.

1. Forex Scalping

Forex scalping is a widely known technique in forex trading, although it is generally not widely used because it is one of the more complicated techniques. Scalping, however, is a relatively new technique. In this method of trading, the profits are gained following smaller moves in the market. This technique helps to reduce the risks you face when negative market events occur that cause the currency prices to go against the trends. In such cases, a lot of forex traders suffer from great losses. Forex scalping, however, can help prevent this.

Forex scalping uses a generally unusual method of trading but it is a well-known choice among active short-term traders and those who are averse to facing big risks.

2. Forex Position Trading

Forex position trading is a forex trading technique known for its better risk to reward ratio. In this strategy, you hold a particular position for an extended period of time. The position can last for weeks, months, and in some cases, even years. The main benefit of this strategy is that you earn more as you keep on adding more lots to your original position, but you retain the freedom to stop when you think the market is becoming unstable. Forex position trading lessens your exposure to the market, so there is no need to keep on monitoring the market. This is ideal for traders who do not like spending all their time in front of the monitors. This is one of the best trading techniques pros use to try and avoid high risks as they scour for higher profits.

3. Forex Hedging

You can also use the forex hedging technique. Most traders are faced with open forex positions, which expose them to a certain amount of risk. Forex hedging is an effective trading technique that can decrease that risk. To execute a forex hedge, you can initiate both a long and a short trading position on a single pair. This technique, however, may not be allowed by some brokers, so make sure to run it through yours first.

US Dollar: At the Mercy of Risk Appetite...or is It?

Monday, October 12, 2009

Saturday, 10 October 2009 02:24:05 GMT


Written by John Kicklighter, Currency Strategist


ew would argue at this point that the dollar’s bearings are being dictated by investor sentiment. The conspicuous test of a 14-month low in the Dollar Index last week and the simultaneous push to a one-year high from the benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average is certainly not a coincidence.



US Dollar: At the Mercy of Risk Appetite…or is It?
Fundamental Outlook for US Dollar: Bullish
- Dollar stands on the edge of another plunge as risk eyes new heights - Rumors of a replacement for the dollar in oil deals furthers long-term fundamental concerns - Is the market prepared to hold EURUSD’s double top?
Few would argue at this point that the dollar’s bearings are being dictated by investor sentiment. The conspicuous test of a 14-month low in the Dollar Index last week and the simultaneous push to a one-year high from the benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average is certainly not a coincidence. Yet, with this relationship in mind, how do we reconcile the side-by-side rallies from both equities and the greenback on Friday? Risk appetite was certainly on the rise - as can be confirmed through the pace of equities, Treasury yields and the yen crosses. The seemingly inconsistent piece to this puzzle is the US dollar. Is the currency decoupling from the financial market’s most influential fundamental driver or is this a fluke that will be quickly resolved? Perhaps just as important of a question: will bulls be able capitalize on the proximity of new highs in optimism and jump start the next leg of a very fruitful trend?
It is a rather straightforward deliberation in speculating the direction of risk appetite. Either it will rise or fall. However, when you throw the dollar into the mix, the outlook is more complicated. We need to first establish the relationship between the underlying trend and the beaten currency. There are essentially two chief concerns that bind the dollar to the market’s will: an exceptionally low market rate and the threat of losing its reserve status. Under normal circumstances, the former is the more pressing issue; but it may have been the dollar’s prominence on the world stage that was likely responsible for Friday’s divergence. Earlier in the week, rumors circulated that oil-producing nations in the Middle East were in active discussions with Japan, Russia and others aimed at phasing the US dollar out as the primary payment for oil deals. This story was subsequently squashed by all groups that were supposedly involved. The merits of this report are questionable; but it is nonetheless a good probability that such a deliberation would come up later if it isn’t already being made. The real interest is in the time frame that was drawn up from this report – 2018 for the change in pricing. This is a considerable ways off and concern over diversification (for oil deals or reserves) is a matter for long-term fundamentals and not short-term risk appetite. The underlying trend in sentiment itself is born largely from capital appreciation which won’t likely sustain itself for much longer. When the market comes to this conclusion, the greenback will likely respond to very different catalysts.
In the meantime, there is always the backup tether between sentiment and the dollar in the form of yield. When the topic of the carry trade comes up, the benchmark interest rates are usually used for comparison; but investors don’t really deal at the Fed Funds rate. In reality, the foundation for a country’s yield is its three-month Libor. This US market rate hit a record low (0.2825 percent) just two weeks ago and has since stabilized. At its current level, the US Libor is at a discount to all of its liquid counterparts; meaning, those looking to establish carry positions are borrowing from the world’s largest economy (which is flush with cash) and investing in other nations at a higher rate. However, whereas the current yield may make the dollar a good funding currency; the medium-term outlook does not. The US is recovering and the Fed is already laying plans to rein in its stimulus. Reductions in some lending programs and testing the waters with reverse repos in the money market fund. So, while a rate hike may be a ways off, a boost in market yields is not.
As for data, the economic docket holds little for event risk traders or long-term fundamental traders to really grab on to. The retail sales and University of Michigan sentiment reports are notable readings for measuring the health of the large consumer sector. Aside from these numbers, the CPI statistics and FOMC minutes will tune more directly into interest rate speculation. – JK
For more timely FX market analysis, visit our newly-launched Forex Stream Service.
Written by: John Kicklighter, Currency Strategist

Secret Forex Strategy That Works Every Time

Saturday, October 10, 2009

Do you wonder how successful forex traders make profit every time they enter into any trade? No matter what the market condition is, no matter rates are falling or rising they always manage to make profits. The secret of their success lies in the way they think and enter into any trade. If you understand how and when they make purchasing and selling decisions it is very easy for you to copy them and you too can make profit in every trade you make in forex.

Before looking into the secret strategy of successful traders let us first look at why most of the novice inexperienced traders miserably fail in forex market. If you notice around you will see that most of the traders have a mindset of 'buy low and sell high' notion. While it may be true but it will entirely depend on guessing and predicting the future.

No one can predict future 100% correct, let us face it. And so it is futile to attempt to predict how market will move in future. Buying on support point and selling on resistance levels can go wrong at least 8 times out of 10. The reason is several factors play a role in market movements. It's just not possible for any expert to predict the market future movements.

It is for this reason that experienced smart traders don't bother to predict the future. They rather try and follow the trend. Their strategy will be to 'Buy High and Sell More High', and this works every time. You need not to care why market is coming up or why market is coming down. Simply catch a point while rates are moving up and enter the trade and come out of it the moment you see you are making minimum profit.


You can master this strategy with little practice and experience. It is a proven formula for making sure profits in every trade.

Forex Trading - 3 Simple Tips To Make Money Fast

If you are just starting out in forex trading or an experienced trader not making the gains you would like then these 3 tips are for you. There simple to learn easy to apply and could help you make triple digit annual gains so lets look at them.

1. Trade Less For Bigger Profits

Most traders think that they need to be in the market All the time in case they miss a move or the more they trade the more likely they are to be successful – but this is totally incorrect.

In Forex trading you make your money from being Right and that’s it – the effort you put in does not affect the amount of money you make. In fact in most instances the harder you try and more you trade, the greater your chances of failure.

Why?

Quite simply because the high odds trades don’t come around that often.

This philosophy is based on the famous Pareto principle the 80 / 20 rule.

The rule states that 80% of your results come from 20% of your activities.

This is true in many areas of life including trading Forex.

In forex trading by focusing on the trades with the best odds and ignoring the others, you can improve your profits overall.

By only focusing on this 20%, you will see bigger gains. This is really a common sense rule, yet few Forex traders stop to think about it. Most trade too much and try and force profits but if they were disciplined, patient and only focused on the best trades they would win more.

I know a trader who only trades about 6 times a year and yet they make over 100% annualized gains!
Think about trading less and you will see the logic of the above argument.

2. Don’t Diversify

When you do this resist the allure of diversification, it may reduce risk but if you have a high odds trade, why dilute its potential profit by diversifying with a marginal trade?

If you have a high odds trade go for it and this leads directly on to the next point.

3. Risk More Per Trade

As you only have one trade to focus on and it’s a good one risk as much as you can afford on it forget the accepted investment wisdom of 2 or 5% risk 10 25% minimum – if you believe in the trade go for it.

This is not being rash – its simply acknowledging an investment fact:

Risk goes with reward and the more you risk the more you can make.

This doesn’t mean being rash but your better to risk a lot on a high odds trade, than risk a little on a number of trades with poor profit potential.

Finally – To Make BIG Profits Learn To Love RISK!

The reason most traders never make any money is they are so afraid of risk they actually create it. They trade marginal trades, don’t risk enough and dilute their profit potential.

The fact is if you want to trade currencies you need to enjoy risk and be a speculator and confront and conquer risk – If you do you will make a lot of money. On the other hand if you don’t enjoy risk – don’t trade Forex.

Standard Deviation - an Essential Tool for Forex Trading Success

Friday, October 9, 2009

Standard deviation is a concept all fore traders should understand, as it will give you a greater edge in your quest for forex trading success.

If you want to understand it read on and find out how it can make you a more profitable forex trader.

Standard deviation is logical and will help you time entries better and define targets for trades.
What is standard deviation?

Standard deviation is a statistical term that shows the volatility of price in any instrument including forex.

Standard deviation measures how widely values (closing prices) are dispersed from the average.

Dispersion is defined as:
The difference between the actual value closing price and the average value or mean closing price.

The larger the difference between the closing prices and the average price, the higher the standard deviation and volatility of the currency measured will be.

The closer the closing prices are to the average mean price, the lower the standard deviation or volatility of the currency.

The confusing bit (don't worry we will simplify it later) but here is the definition:

Standard deviation is calculated by taking the square root of the variance, the average of the squared deviations from the mean.

High Standard Deviation is present when the price of the currency studied is changing dramatically.

Conversely, low Standard Deviation values occur when prices are more stable or less volatile

Spotting Contrary trades

Major tops and bottoms are accompanied by high volatility as prices reflect the psychology of the participants.

Greed and fear, push prices away from the average to unsustainable levels and prices eventually return to the mean average.

Why is standard deviation such an essential study?

Any currency moves with the following inputs determining the price:

Supply and demand fundamentals + investor psychology = Price.

Taking Advantage Of Human Psychology

A big rise in volatility and a dramatic move away from the mean average, means that emotions are moving the currency too quickly away from the mean.

Forex: EUR/USD rejected at 1.4770, falls to 1.4710

Fri, Oct 9 2009, 13:24 GMT
http://www.fxstreet.com

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) – The Dollar strengthened across the board in the last hour. EUR/USD was rejected from 1.4770 and fell sharply to 1.4710. The pair has fallen more than 60 pips in the last two hours and is heading toward intra-day low that lies at 1.4701. Dollar has recovered after a slid during the European session. Below 1.4700, the next support lies at 1.4680 and 1.4640/50.

The ecPulse.com analysis team affirms: “The euro versus the dollar continued its downside pressures upon 1.4725 support, with a downside breach attempt; nevertheless, the pair instantly returned to trade around this level, in an attempt to return to its expected upside direction. However, we still hold onto our morning expectations of an intraday upside direction, where expectations are supported by Stochastic's oversold signs. “

Forex: EUR/USD: Allow for a re-test of 1.4500 today - Mizuho

Thursday, October 1, 2009

Thu, Oct 1 2009, 07:44 GMT
http://www.fxstreet.com

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The Euro has been capped at 1.4675 area several times this week, the last one on Thursday's Asian session and the pair dropped to 1.4550 low, Nicole Elliott senior technical analyst at Mizuho Corporate Bank, advances the possibility of a retest of the 1.4500 level later today.

Elliott sees the Euro capped at the 9-day moving average and likely to test 1.4500 area: "Consolidating neatly in a little ‘channel’, capped by the 9-day moving average. Today allow for a re-test of the short term 50% Fibonacci retracement and 26-day moving average at 1.4500. Momentum is zero and the Euro is a long way from being overbought."

Support levels, according to Elliott lie at 1.4560, 1.4526 and 1.4500. On the upside, resistance levels are 1.4668, 1.4700 and 1.4725.

Forex: USD/JPY: Dollar returns above 90.00

Thu, Oct 1 2009, 07:05 GMT
http://www.fxstreet.com

Xstreet.com (Barcelona) - Dollar decline from 90.40 high on Wednesday found support a 89.35 level on the same day, and the Dollar has continued crawling higher during Asian trading time, reaching levels at 90.15.

Initial resistance level lies at 90.10, and above here, 90.50 (Sept 24 high) and 90.85. On the downside support level lies at 89.35 (Sept 30 low), and below here, 89.15 and 88.25 (Sept 28 low).

EUR/JPY remains trading in a flat channel from 130.60 to 131.80, after decline from 135.50 on Sept 21 found support at 129.75. Resistance levels are 132.05 and 132.50/70. Support levels are 131.10/20 and 130.60

Frex: GBP/USD: Pound drops from 1.6125 to 1.5925

Thu, Oct 1 2009, 06:41 GMT
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FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Sterling's recovery from Monday's low ay 1.5770 was capped on Wednesday at 1.6125 and the Pound has been dropping during U.S. and Asian sessions, reaching levels at 1.5925, session low so far.

At the moment, the Pound attempts to pick up, trading at 1.5960. next support levels lie at 1.5925 (intra-day low/Sept 25 low), and below there 1.5880 and 1.5800 (Jun 8 low). Resistance levels lie at 1.6110 (End August, start September lows) and above here, 1.6200 and 1.6350.

GBP/JPY upside movement from Monday's low at 139.75 has stalled at 144.50 high on Wednesday, and the pair has entered into a sideways channel from 142.80 and 144.00. Resistance levels lie at 144.00 and 144.50. Support levels are 142.80 and 142.05.
 
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